The present paper aims to assess the risk of rib fractures caused by any rigid less-lethal kinetic energy projectiles. To that end, a coupled experimental and numerical approach is proposed to relate ballistic experiments with the risk of blunt trauma. A polymer gel block is employed as ballistic testing medium to interpret ballistic impacts through the measurement of the dynamic gel wall displacement. Moreover, a biofidelic 50th percentile human torso finite element model created in the code Hypermesh (Altair HyperWorks ©) is used to replicate experiments and real world accidents. Then, the probability curve of rib fractures is a function of the viscous criterion and derives from a study on human cadaver mid-sternum available in the literature. Twelve impact conditions of rigid projectiles are applied to a SEBS gel block and are replicated on the human torso model mid-sternum. A statistical analysis is performed by virtue of a Spearman's correlation matrix in order to identify relations between experimental measurements and the viscous criterion evaluated numerically. The determination of both statistical significances and correlation coefficients results in several strong correlations between experimental measurements and the viscous criterion evaluated numerically. These relations imply the establishment of transfer functions between experimental metrics on the gel block (the maximum gel wall displacement and a gel wall displacement – rate of displacement based metric) and the probability of rib fractures. Finally, these correlations constitute a primary and an up-and-coming predicting tool for the risk of rib fractures.